If China is going to lose some manufacturing as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. manufacturing sector won’t be the main beneficiary, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey.

The Trump administration says a reshoring boom is coming, but most companies that responded to the survey tell CNBC that bringing back supply chains could as much as double their costs and that instead a search for low-tariff regimes around the world will commence.

Over half of those surveyed (57%) said cost was the top reason for saying they would not be reshoring production; 21% said their top reason was the challenge of finding skilled labor. The Trump administration has promised tax cuts for companies that bring back manufacturing, but the survey found taxes (14%) lower in companies’ ranking of factors that impact manufacturing site decision-making.

Despite some recent high-profile announcements from the tech sector, including Nvidia’s plans for a supercomputer plant in the U.S. and Apple’s commitment to invest $500 billion in the country, most companies cite costs as prohibitive. The Trump administration gave the tech sector a reprieve Friday from new tariffs on China and other global manufacturing nations, but the White House is moving ahead with a national security investigation that targets critical technology for future tariffs.

Taken together, the majority of respondents estimated that the price tag of building a new domestic supply chain would at least be double current costs (18%), or would likely be more than double (47%). Instead of moving supply chains back to the United States, 61% said, it would be more cost-effective to relocate supply chains to lower-tariffed countries.

In addition to the tariffs, consumer demand and raw material prices, as well as the “current administration’s inability to provide a consistent strategy,” were cited as key supply chain concerns.

A majority of respondents (61%) who responded to a question about whether they feel like the Trump administration “is bullying corporate America” answered “Yes.”

A total of 380 respondents from companies in the supply chain and business organizations were included in the survey, conducted from April 14-18, with 120 respondents answering every question. The survey was sent to members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, National Retail Federation, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, OL USA, SEKO Logistics, and ITS Logistics.

Among respondents indicating interest in reestablishing a U.S. supply chain, 41% said it would take at least three to five years, and 33% said it would take longer than five years.

Automation would dominate

If manufacturing is coming back to the U.S., automation will be a major component of the economic model, with 81% of respondents saying they would use it more than they would human workers.

“The U.S. labor market is a concern when considering movement back to the U.S.,” said Mark Baxa, CEO of supply chain trade group CSCMP.

In the current environment, layoffs are an immediate concern, with respondents almost evenly split between those who said they are planning head count reductions (47%) and those who say they do not have current layoff plans (53%). To a more general question of how long firms will “wait to make staffing decisions” the majority said no longer than nine months — 38% indicated within two to three months; 23% over the next three to six months.

A Fed survey released Monday found a surge in fears about layoffs.

Right now, the most widespread reaction to the Trump tariffs is the cancellation of orders, according to 89% of respondents, and an expectation that consumers will pull back on spending, which 75% of respondents said they are forecasting. For products that are coming in under the new tariff rates, 61% of those who participated in the survey said they would raise prices.

“The immediate impact is order cancellations and the risk of consumer spending pullback is noteworthy,” Baxa said.

Survey respondents expect the hardest-hit products as a result of a pullback in consumer spending to be discretionary products (44%), furniture (19%), and luxury (19%).

“As of now, we have seen a heavy cancellation or pause rate for freight originating from China, but are seeing increased volumes and front loading from other countries in Asia that had their reciprocal tariffs paused for 90 days,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics.

Recession warning from supply chain

Sixty-three percent of respondents warn of a recession impacting the U.S. economy this year as a result of Trump’s tariffs policy, with roughly half (51%) expecting a consumer pull back to hit in Q2.

“Supply chains that support millions of U.S. jobs, power U.S. manufacturers, and provide affordable choices for U.S. consumers are now experiencing early signs of damage due to these destructive tariffs,” said Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association. “Higher prices, job losses, product shortages, and bankruptcies will be only some of the adversity the U.S. economy weathers while the President pursues this ill-advised tariff policy.”

He previously told CNBC that the damage to businesses across the economy may soon be “irreversible.”

Trump’s National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, said on Monday that more than 10 countries have made “amazing” trade deal offers to the United States and he “100%” guaranteed there is no recession coming.

Multiple surveys taking the pulse of CEOs show widespread expectations that a recession may have already started or is soon to come.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that based on conversations he has had with CEOs across the economy, the U.S. is either very close to or already in a recession now.

Smaller businesses and startups say the tariffs will be catastrophic and place U.S. jobs at risk.

“Small consumer companies that started with an innovative idea do not have the capital to invest in building factories,” said Bruce Kaminstein, member of NY Angels and founder and former CEO of cleaning products company Casabella. “They were forced to go overseas because of a lack of production facilities here in the U.S. Factories in China welcomed our business and helped us bring our products to market,” he said.

This time of year is when retailers are ordering their back-to-school and holiday items, and while some importers have been pulling back on orders anywhere from between 5% to 30%, according to the survey, three-quarters of respondents say the back-to-school and holiday orders specifically have not been affected. They are suggesting that companies are preparing for a cautious consumer. There is a greater focus on lower-priced goods for the holidays (67%), and more promotional items (21%). Aspirational luxury (7%) and luxury (5%) ranked last among holiday season order planning.

Correction: Cost is the biggest headwind in relocating supply chains to the U.S., according to 57% of respondents. A majority of firms said they will “wait to make staffing decisions” for a period of between three to nine months, rather than planning headcount reductions now. Half (51%) of respondents expect a consumer pull back to hit in Q2. An earlier version of this article misstated these survey results.