Inflation has barely budged in recent months, and that trend is likely to continue in November.

An inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due Wednesday is likely to show the Consumer Price Index, a measure of the cost of living, rose 2.7% in the 12 months ending in November, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

That would be up from a 2.6% annual increase in October and the highest inflation rate since July, marking a setback in the Federal Reserve’s battle to get inflation down to a 2% annual rate and keep it there.

Progress against inflation has stalled in recent months, contrasting earlier in the year when price increases were notably decelerating. The annual CPI rate fell every month between March and September, only to reaccelerate in October. Housing costs have been a major factor keeping inflation from cooling to pre-pandemic levels, and economists expect that to be the case in November’s data as well.

“We expect no major surprises on the inflation front, but the final push toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target will be a bumpy one,” Dante DeAntonio and other economists at Moody’s Analytics wrote in a commentary.

Moody’s economists also expect energy costs to contribute to the uptick in the overall inflation rate. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs expect prices for used cars, airline tickets, and car insurance have risen, contributing to the trend.

The Fed Is Watching

Wednesday’s report will be fresh in the minds of officials at the Federal Reserve’s policy committee when they meet Dec. 17-18 to set the nation’s monetary policy.

Financial markets are betting the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate at that time, but higher-than-expected inflation could derail those expectations. Stubborn inflation could also dim the outlook for more rate cuts in the year ahead.

The Fed is setting its influential fed funds rate, which influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, to keep a lid on inflation while preventing a surge in unemployment. After holding the rate at a two-decade high for more than a year, the Fed began cutting the rate in September as officials became more confident inflation was falling and more worried about the trajectory of the job market.

Since then, the labor market has remained resilient while inflation has remained elevated. In a speech last week, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, a member of the policy committee, said he was watching inflation data closely but didn’t want to “overreact” to the uptick in prices in October.