With a TikTok ban potentially taking effect in the U.S. on Sunday, analysts at Morgan Stanley said other social media platforms could compete for the roughly $10 billion in ad revenue and 32 billion hours users spend on the app each year.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday upheld a law requiring TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, to sell the platform or face a shutdown in the U.S. as of Jan. 19 amid national security concerns. That means app stores such as Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google Play Store and Apple’s (AAPL) App Store won’t be able to offer TikTok to users in the U.S. after Sunday’s deadline, and the app could go “dark” for U.S.-based users.

Meta Could Be Biggest Winner, According to Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analysts suggested ahead of the decision that Meta (META) could be the “largest fundamental winner” if the ban takes effect Sunday, given its large user base and dataset on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.

They added that for every 10% of U.S. user time currently spent on TikTok that Meta can capture, it could add 30 cents to 60 cents to the company’s estimated roughly $30 in earnings per share in 2026.

“Said another way, META’s ability to capture half of [TikTok]’s time would likely add $1 to $3 to our ‘26 EPS,” the analysts added, noting the biggest gains could come from Instagram Reels, which offers similar short-form video content. 

Along With Meta, YouTube Could See More Engagement

YouTube, particularly YouTube Shorts, could also see increased engagement after a TikTok shutdown in the U.S., Morgan Stanley said.

However, Morgan Stanley estimated Shorts monetizes at half the rate of typical YouTube content, meaning the same 10% time share gain might only add a 1% to 2% increase in YouTube ad revenue. That could mean even if YouTube gained a 50% share and Shorts monetized at the standard YouTube rate, ad revenue for its owner Alphabet would increase just 1.2% in 2026, the firm said. 

Snapchat, Pinterest, and Roblox Among Contenders

Social media companies Snapchat (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS), as well as online gaming entity Roblox (RBLX), could also contend for a piece of the ad revenue pie, Morgan Stanley said. However, the analysts warned the companies might need to prove performance, scalability, and returns on ad spending.

Reddit (RDDT) and Applovin (APP) were among those that could see long-term benefits as well, Morgan Stanley added, noting improving engagement on their platforms.